Lost in all the noise about Big Oil profits, related bigger government demands and even bigger green expectations, is a somber trend: The junior oil sector is withering, and there's doubt it will recreate itself once again.
The reasons are partly demographic. Many of the wildcatters who built the exploration-focused companies populating the bottom end of the industry are reaching retirement age.
But even those who could have given it another go are pessimistic they can make it under current industry conditions -- rising royalty rates, high costs and competition for labour and services, little capital market support, climate-change policy, competition from cheap imports of liquefied natural gas coming from offshore.
While larger companies with diversified assets can weather adverse conditions by moving elsewhere or to different plays, junior companies don't always have the choice. "A lot of guys think it's the end of an era. The junior sector is built on optimism. But right now there is more reason to be somber about the future than excited.
Even the juniors that are continuing are making do with less. Investment in Western Canada by the group, which reached a collective $6-billion in 2006, is down by at least 50%.
"The junior space is under pressure, There is still some reinvention, a lot of that is happening under private equity rather than public, but I would say that the pace of that reinvestment is nothing like it was earlier this decade. I am sure there is a chunk of the junior population taking at least a breather, and some of it may be permanent.
Meanwhile, it's unclear if a new junior wave is around the corner but at these prices I believe it is.
