Agoracom

This old girl is severely testing its long-term shareholders.

Am I now going to come here more often and start bashing management for me being down on my investment?

Am I going to publicly undermine my own investment interests here in a public forum and criticize the management group for their well-outlined and telegraphed growth strategy with some 20:20 hindsight and armchair quarterbacking?

Am I going to have a temper tantrum and sell my rather large, now-underwater position into the market in strategic blocks, at market, just as support starts to build and upticks start to bring in some investors sitting on their hands with some regained confidence? Here, take that you bastards!

Well, of course the answer is obvious to most sane people. Yet all these things are actually going on. Sad.

Of course this is destructive behaviour, but once one applies cool logic and apprises the situation, it is apparent that one would want to take advantage of such an anomaly—a "black swan" event.

I researched this deal and the people, understand the assets and the strategy, and spent significant time building what is for me a large position - in excess of 7 figures post roll-back to put me in some perspective.

So with the shares at multi-year lows what has changed? I’m significantly poorer, on paper, for sure. Never a happy thing. Am I now a seller because the shares are cheaper? No, I am and will continue to be a buyer. Almost everyday - a little here, a little there, as cash positions allow. Am I nuts? Some will likely think so.

But again, what has changed? That’s the $64,000 question isn’t it. At $0.41 and with 72M share o/s that implies the whole co is worth only $29.5 million. Well their La Balsa property alone can be sold in a heartbeat for US$50 million or even more. So you get Granduc, Sombrero Butte/Copper Creek, Kabba, etc for nothing, zilch, and would have tons of cash to move forward.

Hmmm, $50 million divided by 72 million shares ... gee that’s 69 cents a share cash, and all those properties for free. What would we be trading at? $0.41??? Not likely!

Of course selling La Balsa prior to production would make some shareholders happy no doubt—a quick fix. But think of the foregone potential cash flow attached to La Balsa. Is that a smart solution? Of course not - but it puts things in perspective here.

Today’s trading price is a total disconnect. It’s simply that there are more sellers than buyers in a short space of time. That’s a great value proposition from where we sit, and so we add to positions almost daily.

When you make an investment it is in people more than anything. Either let them do their thing or get out of the way, i.e. sell your stock. Sure, go have a temper tantrum in the market so longer term money can take you out of your apparent pain, or give you that temporary good feeling similar for some to kicking that smug-looking cat when you’re mad at yourself for your own stupidity or over-extension.

The bottom line is, management is very quiet post-merger, and this is likely for a very good reason. The merger was done for strategic reasons ... get to cash flow quickly to help fund more cash flow and development, and achieve exploration results. The one thing missing has been a strong sponsorship deal or strategic relationship. This would have had to wait for the merger to complete. Any such behind-the-scenes efforts always take time, so let things breathe.

Meanwhile, we have counter-productive bashing, anger and aggressive selling. This is always a temporary situation when the assets are so strong and measurable. The sellers obviously have no care about value, just their liquidity. I’m the reverse—a buyer, and so it goes.