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Message: Long term Lithium chemicals price

Sorry for the delay in answering, Tom.  My thoughts are just opinion mixed with "hope".  I don't think we are at the end of the lithium rainbow just yet, so there should be plenty of time to make a nice ROI on direct and indirect investments involving lithium.  Hydrogen is the poster boy for all those who are pontificating currently about the death of lithium, but Hydrogen carries a big boat anchor in spite of all of the attention being payed to it by the "Lithium is Doomed" crowd.  Lithium is well established and has the infrastructure in place that Hydrogen doesn't have and that would take years for Hydrogen to obtain to the same degree IF that was the only problem facing Hydrogen in its goal to displace lithium from the field.

If it wasn't hydrogen then it would be something else.  There will always be journalists writing stories about "the Next Best Thing!".  That's what they do.  New technologies take years to become "established" in the majority of cases.  Ok, there are exceptions to that axiom, but those exceptions are rare.  Considering all of the government and environmental hoops that will face any new technology bent on displacing lithium I think it is fair to say that replacement, from a commercial standpoint, is years away.  

I believe, and I could be wrong, that a definite marker signaling the end of the Lithium Era will happen when Energy Storage developments put lithium batteries into a situation whereby they account for roughly only 25% or less of the stationary storage market sector that belongs exclusively to battery storage of energy because in the sequence of things lithium applications related to Energy Storage will occur first before mobile applications of lithium batteries are on the decline.  My focus will be on that portion of the stationary Energy Storage market dealing with batteries.  Concurrently other forms of Energy Storage will also take a larger and larger share of the overall stationary Energy Storage market since technological innovation and new ideas are not the exclusive bailiwick of battery technology, least of all of lithium battery technology. Innovation doesn't stand still for any man or any one technology.

 

Sure, I have said the same thing many times before, but that just relates to the level of conviction that I have that concerned lithium investors need to watch the stationary Energy Storage market and keep their eyes on it because that will be the Canary in the Coal Mine that signals that it is time to head for the exit, or at least sometime in what would then be the near future.  Once I see that event happen I won't hesitate to start liquidating my investment in both LAAC and LAC, if by some happy circumstance I haven't liqudated it sooner at a nice profit and considerable ROI.

All of the "Journalists" now obsessed with writing another hack job puporting to show "the Death of Lithium" will, when the Canary in the Coal Mine dies, shift their empasis immediately to belatedly jump on the "Look how lithium batteries are no longer used 'Anywhere' for stationary Energy Storage Solutions!"  And, at that belated time in the course of market events the "J" people will finally be right.  ESS market major decline for lithium batteries first and THEN we will start to see the same effects occur in mobile applications of lithium batteries.  The second event won't occur on the same time table as predicted by the "J" crowd, it will occur slower than the time table they will profess, but it will occur.

Tom, those are my thoughts on the subject.  Not worth a darn thing.  My prognostications are not anything I would want someone else to put money down on but they will serve as a future guide for my "Exit Strategy" concerning both LAAC and LAC.  In the meantime I expect to hold on to both LAAC and LAC for several years into the future unless I see something North of $50 a share for each of them before the Canary obituary hits the newspaper.

Best wishes to all LAAC and LAC investors.  There must be at least half a dozen of us left on this message board, eh?

Onward through the FOG!

Okiedo

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